61th Update on Corona Virus Pandemic with Dr Peter (next update April 5)
Just about one year ago that the WHO declared the pandemic. Dr Peter saw an article in a medical journal presenting a list of things that were “wrong” in the understanding about the SARS II Corona Virus a year ago. But he was grateful to see that Master guided us through that time of uncertainty and showed us the right information and the right action to take and the right way to protect people.
Reminder: You can still take part in Covid Research Study
Symptom Tracker App that enables you to participate in a study. Developed by UK universities and New England Journal of Medicine. Being used to predict where new cases may appear and what side effects people are having, symptoms and relationship to underlying health conditions.
C-19 Symptom Study made by Zoe Global Limited (FREE download)
Designed to be used by anyone – whether you are well or having any symptoms. List symptoms daily and you can record when you have your vaccine doses and side effects.
Very easy and takes only a moment each day.
If you are interested in a daily update from an expert, Dr Peter recommends Dr John Campbell on Youtube.
Statistics (3 weeks since the last update)
Nevada County (about 100k pop)
4100cases, up about 250 cases from 3 weeks ago.
Case Positivity Rate: An average daily positivity rate (over 14 days): 3.6% down from 8.5%
Hospitalized cases are younger now. So many of 65yo and older people have now been vaccinated, which greatly reduces the risk of hospitalization. We also have better treatments.
4-6 per day people hospitalized for COVID 19. ICU cases 1-2, down from average of 3.
Deaths in county: 74, same.Case Fatality rate: 2%
504cases, up 50 cases, in the 95959 zip code, where Ananda Village is located.
Sierra County (3100 pop)
Only 1 new case.
Case positivity rate averaged over 14 days is 2.8% down from 5%.
Yuba County (80Kpop) (younger average age than NC)
5800 cases, up about 250 Hospitalized: 7, down from 14
CPR: Averaged over 14 days is 4.9% down from 7.9%
Placer County (400Kpop)
20,000 cases, up 800
CPR: 14 day average is 2.4% down from 4.8%
Hospitalized: 45, up from 38 Deaths: 239
3.6 million cases, up from 3.5 3wks ago
CPR: 2.0% down from 3.5%
Hospitalizations: 3800, down from 7300
ICU: 1000, down from 2100
55,000 up from 49,000 deaths. This will probably continue to go up.
US (330 mill pop)
30 million up from 28.7 million cases 40K to 70K per day (down)
Cases per day: about 60 – 70 K, down from 150K
Deaths: 547K, up from 510K
Deaths per day 1400 – 1500
Having a very difficult time. Swamped with the P1 strain.
Highest new case count per day in the world. 70 – 80K cases per day, mostly the P1 strain which has higher transmission rate and higher fatality rate than the classic Sars II Corona Virus.
Deaths – over 2000 per day
Poor country and medical system. Not getting vaccines there.
Also have a very difficult time. They are having a “third wave”. Seems to be generated by B117 strain. Over 50% of the cases in Western and Eastern Europe. Do not have enough vaccine and are struggling with getting the vaccine delivered to the population.
Public Health Update:
There has been an update in CDC guidelines for those who are 2 weeks beyond being vaccinated. Dr Peter says he would not recommend changing your behavior right now, but give it a little more time to allow for more people getting vaccinated. He theorizes that the CDC may be doing this to encourage vaccination – people may see that the restrictions are less if they are vaccinated.
Here in the U.S. 75% of available vaccine has been given. There is not a lot of vaccine sitting on the shelf. This is very good to see.
Another surge – there may still be another surge in the end of March – May but it is difficult to predict. The numbers are still going down and more vaccines are going out, which is good.
Johnson and Johnson vaccine – NC has a very small allotment of the vaccine. It is a single dose.
More is coming. Best to take whatever vaccine comes your way. If you are unable to get the second booster of any of the other vaccines, it is okay to wait several months if needed. Most immunity comes from the first shot. In the UK they are giving the second boosters out 3 months, to enable more people to get vaccinated quickly.
NC is still designated in the “purple tier” which is the “widespread” category. Heading in a good direction. Giving about 750 doses of vaccine per day in NC.
General guidelines for post vaccine:
CDC: 2 weeks after second dose or 2 weeks after the single dose vaccine, options for interactions can change.
Note: Excellent immunity shown 4 weeks after first dose of any vaccine. Not much immunity in the first 2 weeks. Study in Israel showed that there was a 60% increase in cases within 2 weeks after the vaccine because people were assuming they were immune immediately.
Be very careful in behaviors for 4 weeks after the first dose and then 2 weeks after the second dose.
Johnson and Johnson – best to wait for 4 weeks to assume you have good immunity.
Long term symptoms: “post acute Sars II corona virus syndrome” PASS or long haulers
At least 10% of people who have had Covid 19, including those who had little initial symptoms with disease wind up having some kind of persistent symptoms out to 6 months. For those who were very sick and hospitalized, it is probably as high as 30% who have long term symptoms.
B117 strain in California:
This mutation has higher transmission rate and higher fatality rate. Fortunately the spread has been slower than anticipated and primarily in metropolitan areas.
Area around Lake Tahoe is doing very well now – no new case since Feb 23. Did very well with vaccinating elderly population.
Still not time for larger public gatherings. Will be okay eventually –
There may be a T cell test available soon, not available to the public. Would be difficult to interpret. This is to see if someone has had an immune response to the virus.
Happy news – the 4 vaccines widely available now (Moderna, Pfizer, Astrazeneca, Johnson/Johnson) and the Sputnik vaccine, are all decreasing transmission rates. This is very very good news.
Astrazeneca has been less effective against the S. African strain, but still over 50% and better than no vaccine. For some reason they stopped giving it in S. Africa. President of France made some disparaging remarks about it also.
The next vaccine that will probably get emergency authorizations: Novovax (this vaccine is a bit different and he will explain more when we get closer to the time it is going out)
Herd immunity? When might we see herd immunity in the U.S.? Perhaps end of August, into September. If it comes sooner that would be great.
New medication: Molnupiravir
Oral treatment for Sars II corona virus. Tamiflu is a medication for influenza that is very effective. Molnupiravir may be similar for the corona virus. 5 day course.
Ivermectin is still being studied and we should have some results soon to clarify how best and when to give it. Still not being used here because of political pressures. Some people are trying to use the veterinary Ivermectin.
Hydroxychoroquin not being used either, due to political reasons.
Variants of concern:
South African (B1351), Brazilian (P1) and California (Cal.20C) – each one contain a mutation called the “Eek” mutation (E484K) which gives them resistance to the current vaccine. It is limited resistance, decreased resistance – not complete resistance. An “escape” variant refers to a variant that can escape the vaccine. The current vaccine is still effective and there is no reason not to go ahead with getting the current vaccine. But it is possible that a booster vaccine will be developed and offered that addresses the variants.
*Best way to prevent variants is to prevent spread.
Infection rates overall are going down. Remains to be seen how it will develop. Deaths are still high.
Economy still a concern and unsure what and when huge sectors will come back.
Vaccine passports will probably become a reality. Some companies are setting up apps to use on smart phones so evidence of vaccinations will be easy to have with you.
Jyotish and Devi:
Have been in touch with Ananda Italy and India. Ananda Italy is struggling financially and facing shutdown again. India is pretty stable. Vaccines are available in India, less available in Italy.