Monday Aug. 9, 2021
Sars2 Coronovirus, Covid 19, Informational Update with Dr. Peter and Jyotish and Devi, from Ananda Village, in Nevada County, CA Our last update was July 12. Our 69th update, today.
Please do not share these notes or the recording on social media or on websites.
Next Meeting: Community Wellness Meeting Sept. 13 2021
“I have within me the power and intelligence I need to meet all the problems of this day. I shall live today in perfect faith, calling on this power as the need arises.” —Paramhansa Yogananda, How to Have Courage, Calmness, and Confidence
Efficacy of Vaccines Against the Delta Variant and High Transmission Rates
Our current vaccines are working quite well here in the U.S. This includes Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson. One is considered fully immunized two weeks after the second vaccine. Some people who are fully immunized will have a positive case, which means they test positive, however may not be symptomatic. SFMC have had a handful of positive cases in fully immunized people, but they have recovered in just a few days and no one has been hospitalized and there is no transmission from these people.
The Delta transmission rate (RO) of 6 – 8 is equivalent to Chicken Pox. Those who are immunized have a greatly reduced transmission rate, if it occurs at all.
In the unimmunized, if one person in a family catches the virus, the whole family ends up getting sick.
There have been very few hospitalizations in those who were fully immunized, just a handful in Nev. County, and the stays have been very brief for those souls.
The surge of local cases, as of Fri, we had 18 people in hospital (about 3x the usual), and 2 in ICU. All were unvaccinated.
In Nev. Co. we have fewer people who have taken advantage of vaccination – only about 65% adults fully immunized. Only 45% of those adults under 50 45%, In teens there are 36% fully immunized.
Because the viral load can be up to 1000 times higher in respiratory sputum with the Delta variant. Vaccinated people have “blood born immunity” so if they catch the virus the symptoms are very brief. Very limited transmission in vaccinated people so the vaccinated aren’t as infectious as unvaccinated people.
The new phrase, “younger, sicker, quicker” reflects the age groups that have less immunization, that Delta is making people sicker, and that incubation is about 3 days instead of 5 -6 days, and with a higher transmission rate.
Delta transmission is easier than other variants in outdoor settings, whereas the older variants were unlikely to spread person to person, outdoors. Shorter more casual contacts indoors are also spread more easily. This is influencing our recommendations we will be making today.
Case counts have gone up sharply in Nev. Co. – one day had 140 cases. One day 120. These were in the five top days for the entire pandemic. Our increase of cases last week was 350 new cases. It’s ramping back up. The Clinic is receiving a dramatic increase in requests for testing.
Local hospital had 20 people last week. In comparison, last January we peaked at 24 in one day at the height of the pandemic to that point.
Those in forefront of the medical field are seeing that Delta Covid has become aggressive enough that it excludes all other variants – competitive exclusion. Delta has taken over and is the infection that is going around. It is deemed that everyone will eventually be exposed to this variant. Those vaccinated will get through this better. It’s not if you will get exposed, but when.
In the UK, the length of time that the surge occurs may be more brief than expected.
The UK had estimated that the surge they were entering would peak in August/early September estimating they would see 100,000-200,000 cases per day. They actually peaked at 47,000 in one day and are now slowly declining. Very good news. They have higher vaccination rates than we do in the US, particularly in the over 50 population. This bodes well for us that the length of time of this surge in the US may be shorter.
Very hard to model these things. Modeling these kinds of complex chaotic systems with many different factors is very difficult – how long someone will be sick, who gets sick, etc. Our modeling in the US hasn’t been as reliable. We are hoping for a compressed time frame for the peak. Maybe late August through September.
Where we are at the moment is quite concerning. We’ll have to see how it plays out in the next few weeks.
Looking at 1918 Influenza pandemic – the hindsight models show the surges coming so close together it was difficult to mathematically model them. We need to keep an open mind and watch what we see is actually happening, having an eye to the future and how we are responding to what’s happening.
In UK – studied antibody levels (Delta Variant) in blood donors in the last month. Looked to see what percent of people had evidence of immunity to Sars2 Coronavirus. 80% of samples showed immunity based on immunization. Those donating blood are people who try to work with the health system and took the pains to get vaccinated. Another 16% had a wild type of infection – at some point they’d been infected with one of the variants. This gives a blood born immunity of 96%. This gets us into the range for the potential for herd immunity. Most protection came from vaccination (80%) We don’t have this sort of info for the US yet.
Where vaccination levels have been very low, particularly in the poorer areas, areas more culturally opposed to getting vaccinated We’ll have to see how they do.
How Long Immunity From the Vaccines Last. Should we be developing boosters to bring in longer term immunity? Pfizer, Moderna, J&J
Will we be engineering vaccine that will be more effective with the new variant(s)? With Pfizer there is a question of whether immunity starts to fall off at the 6 mo. period. We may look at offering boosters for those people who are older or at higher risk. Israel is looking at this, having had such a large percentage of their population immunized, so they are able to study the length of efficacy due to the time that has gone by.
We aren’t seeing the same level of fall off in the UK, where they had more time between first and second shots – about 12 weeks.
There may be a booster recommended, we’ll see what is decided, and whether one will receive a newly developed vaccine or more of the same, or a different type – such as having an adenovirus type like J & J if you had the mRNA vaccine first.
The unvaccinated areas of the US the infection surge is dramatic.
Particularly as areas with low, about 30% vaccinated.
Hospitals, especially in the south and other areas where the vaccination rate is very low, are running low on staff. Staffing in hospitals is stressed. They have been at it since the beginning of the pandemic. Patients are being transferring to other facilities, such as Texas and Florida.
In hot and humid states people stay inside, in enclosed air conditioned areas, and this probably adds to their increased transmission, over and above vaccination levels.
The combination of younger and sicker is being seen. At SNMH the average age of hospitalized was 52. In New Orleans many patients are under the age of 18. Medical staff need to take seriously those youngest people with symptoms.
If you’ve had Covid-19 once, should you go ahead and get a vaccine?
You have some immunity, but we’re finding, especially with newer variants, the older variants are not conferring as much immunity to protect against the Delta variant virus. It is still recommended to be vaccinated to provide additional protection, and have a 50% chance of not having a breakthrough infection.
As soon as someone has recovered from their initial symptoms they can get a vaccine. If they’ve been ill for 10 days and coming out of quarantine, it’s a good time to get vaccinated, then. No need to wait for a period of time, and this is recommended by CDC.
Treatments and Prophalaxis – not much change on that front. Treatments for those of higher risk we are recommending the polyclonal infusions – Regeneron. The infusion is down to 20 minutes long, and they are even experimenting of just giving a subcutaneous injection of it.
If you are over 65 or someone of high risk, you would be eligible for this
This gives passive immunity, where as vaccination is giving you “active” immunity because it activates your immune system. If someone has been given Regeneron and have passive immunity one has immunity for about 90 days only. Then they would wait another 3 months before getting vaccinated. Regeneron is given up to 10 days with symptoms, though it’s better to get it earlier. This reduces viral loads.
A symptomatic person usually presents to the hospital between 7 to 12 days after infection. The later they seek treatment more likely they have already entered into the Cytokine or Bradykine phase and anti-virals will no longer work.
We are seeing increased heart attacks, strokes, and clotting in those who have entered the cytokine or bradykine storm phase of those with the infection.
By the time this inflammatory phase begins one is usually treated with Dexamethasone.
Remdesivir isn’t showing to be a very good treatment.
Toxicilimab – for hospitalied patients it continues to be effective. Used for ICU patients.
Ivermectin is still in limbo. The FDA nor CA Health Dept. isn’t recommending for or against it. A handful of doctors are using it. If it turns out to be effective it is very cheap – you could treat a whole Indian Village for $100. It’s been around for 30 years, well tolerated, easy to manufacture, much easier than vaccines. gives more options, but we’re still waiting to see where in the prevention and treatment process, it is. People are asking for it at the clinic but we aren’t recommending it. There is a lot of misinformation on the internet about it.
Enough vaccine for the entire planet will take months or years to manufacture.
In a few weeks the FDA may be giving full authorization for Pfizer, and then the Moderna will be fully authorized next.
I believe we will see increasing numbers of mandated vaccinations, typically by employers. In CA, it was mandated that all those working in a health care setting much be fully vaccinated by Sept. 30. This means people need to be starting with first shot now. There will be exemptions for religious beliefs and medical reasons. But this may be surprisingly restrictive. You can’t just say it’s against my religion, it may require proof that it’s a tenant of the church or a letter from a pastor, such as those who don’t receive transfusions.
At the SFM clinic 80% of the employee were vaccinated, and all were encouraged to take it. Now the state has mandated it so the rest will need to have it.
Many med. organizations are offering incentives to get vaccinated. One agency offered their employees $1000 to receive it.
Public Health Dept. Meeting and Weekly Grand Rounds Session at SNMH, regarding Covid-19
They do feel there will be a benefit for masking school children. Distancing may not be as important as masking.
There may be a liability for event organizers if they don’t insist on masking or vaccination as a prerequisite for attending their event.
Vaccines have been working well for hospitalization and death prevention, which is what we were hoping for with the vaccines. 99.2% of all Covid deaths – January thru June – were those who were unvaccinated. So over 99% of deaths were in people who were not vaccinated.
In Nev. Co. there have been breakthrough cases – one day close to 20% of the cases were in people who were immunized. CPR has excellerated – now over 15% (over 5% is epidemic status) and it is with the Delta variant. Over The public have not been overly cooperative with contact tracers. So there is a problem finding other cases and having people quarantine.
This past Friday with 18 in our local hospital, and 2 in ICU – none were vaccinated. Average age in hospital was 52.
The local hosp. have cut back on elective surgeries and treatments to save room for more Covid patients. This is hard for people looking forward to joint replacements or even cancer treatments. There is a large triage tent in the parking lot, again, to prevent so many potentially infectious people in contact with the others patients in the Emergency Room.
Local Counties Update
Nevada County total cases is now 5800, and 820 in 95959 zip code
Yuba Co – a much younger county – CPR 14% Hospitalizations 33 up from 12 a month ago, with 9 people in ICU.
Placer Co. CPR is 11.1% up from 2.7% a month ago. Hospitalizations at 144, up from 43, with 30 in ICU.
Sierra Co. is at a CPR 7.1%, a substantial increase a month ago.
US as a whole – we’re seeing about 100,000 cases per day. Initially case rates went up we did not see an increase in hospitalizations or death. Now those things are coming up. ICU cases at 16,000. Two months ago it was about 4000.
Final recommendations for us – we are suggesting that even vaccinated people think about wearing a mask indoors around other people, especially if you don’t know whether they are vaccinated or not. It’s fine if you are with your own “pod” you can continue behaving the way you have. High risk places – health care center or visiting someone in nursing home, increase the quality of mask, such as an N95, or wear a second surgical or cloth mask.
If you’re outside or inside with very few people, any face covering is acceptable.
Washing hands still makes sense, especially if you are touching a frequently used surface such as gas pumps, checking out at grocery store, because of contact of other surfaces.
Jyotish and Devi
India is beginning to increase again. It’s in early stages.
Anand said there is much more conflicting information and much less trust in info coming from officials. Make sure Arudra and Anand get updates both the recording and notes so they can receive science based and “boots on the ground” information.
“Thank you Peter, for your knowledge and compassion have encased Ananda is a bubble of protection. Master has used you as a channel to guide us through this and kept us safe. “
Peter – God is the doer. I feel like He’s alerted us early in all of this to help us as much as possible.
Question: What are the symptoms of Delta and when should a person get tested or seek health advise?
Before it was cough, malaise, fatigue, loss of sense of smell. With Delta it’s a bit different.
Different than the Alpha variant (Wuhan). Now, for people who are vaccinated and who test positive it looks like cold symptoms, headache, runny nose, sneezing, sore throat are the big 4 symptoms. If someone vaccinated thinks they have a summer cold or allergies, get tested just to be sure.
Clinic does rapid testing with same day results. If your test is positive you will be advised what to look for, and you will isolate for 10 days. Risk of transmission is very low, but isolating makes sense. For the unvaccinated it’s more common to add fever and cough with the other symptoms.
If you do test positive please cooperate with the Public Health Dept. who will contact you for contact tracing. It will help everyone. People are being belligerent and even threatening them, even if the patient may be infecting others. Please be nice to them.
Question: When you want to meet next ?
Week after labor Day Sept. 13. Written update in another week or 10 days. If something comes up and we need to connect we will schedule a broadcast.