A summary of discussion points from today:

  • Are we overreacting?
  • If you are feeling uncomfortable and it feels like an overreaction – that’s a normal feeling in the midst of a pandemic. You will discover that what we are doing now will be “normal” a couple weeks from now.
  • A mayor of one of the hardest hit towns in Italy was interviewed about the problem they were having with people not obeying the lock down and he very bluntly said, “Stay at home, it’s better than being dead.”
  • In another town in Italy called Bo, they locked down immediately and have a leveling off of their cases.
  • As of midnight last night, California went into “lockdown” Only essential services open.
  • Spain – made a conscious decision to keep tourism open in the early stages and now has a much bigger problem as a result.
  • How our behavior can change things:
  • Think about this hypothetical example:
  • Corona virus has a transmission rate somewhere between 2.0 and 7. This refers to how many people one infected person is likely to transmit the virus to.
  • With a transmission rate of 2.5 and one virus carrier, after five days there will be 2.5 people with Corona virus; at 30 days there will be 406 cases.
  • Taking personal protection measures the transmission rate could drop to 1.5 and in 5 days, 1.5 people will have the virus and at 30 days there will be only 15 cases.
  • With very careful behavior and strict enforcement of self quarantine behaviors the transmission rate could go as low as .65. In this scenario after 5 days there are only .6 people infected and at 30 days only 2.5 cases.
  • Taking measures to reduce transmission can have a huge difference in just a couple weeks.
  • We don’t know how long it will last – many factors come into play. Depends on what model you use to try and project
  • Stay home, no matter what your age
  • Symptom presentation:
  • Surprisingly, although this is primarily a respiratory virus, about 50% of people infected have GI symptoms/diarrhea in addition to the respiratory and flu-like symptoms. Symptoms may be quite variable. Some have just minor cold symptoms. It is very hard to tell if someone is infected by just looking at the symptoms. Some people have no symptoms at all.
  • Treatments:
  • They are looking at Chloroquine and Hydroxychloriquine as very promising. It may help shorten the illness and reduce the infectious stage.
  • In combination with an antibiotic, Azithromycine, these are testing with good results.
  • Masks:
  • Masks in short supply – N95 masks are best, but surgical masks are okay and a scarf or bandana may be helpful and better than nothing. We don’t have studies to tell us how effective. Some kind of mask is better than no mask. Especially if you are sick – a mask can decrease the transmission by droplets. Masks also decrease how much we are touching our face.
  • Good idea to use masks as much as possible and get used to using masks whenever we are out near anyone.
  • Opening windows and allowing for fresh air circulation in enclosed spaces is a good idea.
  • Immunity:
  • Antibodies – serological immunity. We get sick and our immune system produces antibodies that may last at least a year. We have discovered if you take the plasma from someone who has already had the corona virus, it has antibodies and has a protective effect. This raises the question – can we create a pool of donors?
  • We don’t know how long the immunity would last and we don’t have a test yet to see if someone is already immune. We may come up with something soon.
  • There may be some variation in how the virus responds to climate changes. Those areas that are in summer now – summer equatorial countries, have slower initial transmission rates and it is now ramping up. The coming summer months may have an affect but we don’t know yet.
  • Statistics:
  • Only one case in Nevada County
  • Public health dept thinks there is risk for transmission and there are surely other cases. Continuing testing at the hospital, drive through at the hospital at least 2 days a week.
  • U.S. : 14, 000 cases, up from 9400 (>50% increase) this is mainly due to testing finding those cases already there. 206 deaths / up from 154 – Serious cases steady at 60
  • Hot spot is NY 5600 cases
  • WA 1400 cases 74 deaths
  • CA 1100 cases
  • Italy: 41,000 (up from 35,000) may be seeing some slowing.  Deaths 3200. Serious 2500, up from 2300
  • S Korea: 8600 up from 8500. 94 deaths, 0 serious cases. This is due to their handling this strictly from the beginning
  • Spain: 20,000 cases, 1000 deaths, 1100 serious
  • Germany: 16,000 cases, 214 deaths, serious cases 2
  • Why are Spain and Germany so different with almost the same number of cases? In Spain the virus had an earlier start – testing just starting and maybe the testing is showing more cases and in Germany the virus started a bit later? Maybe Germany will “catch up” to Spain? We don’t know.
  • Some stats show men have higher fatality rate. But in Korea the numbers show less men are infected, but more men get serious – 54% of serious cases are men.
  • Italy 60% of cases are male and 70% of deaths. Perhaps related to smoking? We don’t know.
  • Overall growth, outside of China, doubling every 4.1 days or 10X every 2 weeks
  • Information from medical research in China is good, but stats are not reliable.

In divine friendship in God and Gurus,
Lorna for Ananda Portland